Texas is big favorite in Red River Rivalry
The last time Oklahoma scored a touchdown in the Red River Rivalry was in 2023, when QB Dylan Gabriel’s pass found WR Nick Anderson alone in the back of the endzone in the last minute of the game. The Sooners won 34-30 on their way to a 10-win season.
Oklahoma hasn’t won this game since.
Breaking the drought doesn’t look likely, at least if you pay attention to how the Sooners have stubbed their toes this season with John Mateer’s critical turnovers and an offensive line that is riddled with injuries and inconsistent play.
Vegas makes Texas a 9 1/2 point favorite, although you wonder if the reason the oddsmakers put it that close is because we all know the usual norms of football don’t apply to this game.
There is too much emotion. And the team that best handles that, and manages to not turn the ball over, tends to win it, regardless of predictions or on-paper strengths.
But maybe this game really isn’t different from the norms of football. Bud Wilkinson always said that the key to victory in football rests with three factors: turnovers, field position and the kicking game.
The Red River Rivalry usually lives up to Bud’s teaching.
How many times has a turnover determined this game’s outcome? How many times has the team that won managed to pin their opponent deep in their own territory (which at the Cotton Bowl puts the Sooners deep in the Longhorn crowd for half the game)? And how many times have we seen a punt return bust a tight game open in the fourth quarter?
That said, this game pits a Texas offense whose golden kid QB Arch Manning has been less than spectacular so far this season against a staunch Oklahoma defense, which might be a step below what the Sooners fielded last year, but very good nonetheless.
Perhaps more important to the outcome is when Oklahoma has the ball. It’s an offense that hasn’t found identity, unless you say beating themselves is an identity. The inability of OU to run the football has been critical. Some success there will be critical on Saturday. The Sooners have to do it without RB Xavier Robinson, who showed up on the Wednesday night injury report.
Oklahoma’s offense will go against the strength of the Texas team — the defense.
Oh, did we not tell you — the Longhorns are No. 1 in the country? The biggest reason they are undefeated and ranked so high is their defense (ranked first in scoring defense in the SEC).
Edge rusher Colin Simmons, who had a 5 1/2 sack game against Tennessee, ranks among the nation’s sack leaders.
The ‘horn defense limits opponents’ third down conversion rate to only 33.9 percent.
The first four games has put coach Bill Bedenbaugh’s job on the line. The offensive line has played below standards for several years.
The QB play, such as what Dylan Gabriel provided, managed to overcome the O-Line problems. But, John Mateer isn’t Gabriel. Or at least he isn’t this year.
The funny thing is, Mateer could become Gabriel in this game. One pass. One touchdown. One last minute win.
They would beat Texas. They would beat the No. 1 team.
The course of the season changes. And John Mateer changes.
Mateer said the bye week has been good. A time to re-set.
He said he has been challenged to put his confidence “in the process” rather than have it affected by game results.
“We’re ready to go. You get to sit back and look at where we’re at. We’re ready to go,” he said.
As we drive down I-35 to Dallas we might as well look at this game that way. It’s not a death sentence. It’s an opportunity. We are ready to go.
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